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Tuesday, July 22, 2003

Cruz Control-Here's an interesting twist to the recall; it seems to be within the discretion of Lt. Gov. Bustamante to not hold a replacement election along with the recall and take over if Davis is recalled.That would be sneaky as all get out, but seemingly legal. If given the choice of keeping Davis or handing the reins over to another liberal Democrat, recall supporters might opt to keep Davis, who is severely damaged goods, while liberals might opt to get rid of him in favor of an untainted Bustamante. The no-replacement option seems to be in the Democrat's best interest, but not in the Gray Gentleman's best interest. Currently, the Democratic strategy is to not run anybody in the replacement election, leaving pro-Davis voters to either abstain, vote for Green Party candidate Peter Camejo or for a Republican. That strategy is designed to give swing voters who might want to get rid of Davis and vote for a better Democrat more of a reason to vote No on the recall. Here's an odd thought. Are there enough hard-core liberals to give Camejo a plurality? When presented with a choice between Ahnold and Camejo, how many voters would be multicolored and like both a Green and a Gray? Enough to give Ahnold a run for his money from the left. If Ahnold is held to 30% by two or more good conservatives, a Camejo plurality might be possible. However, if there is no replacement election, the choice becomes "Who do you want, Gray or Cruz?" Cruz wins, Gray goes, unless Republicans vote strategically and opt to keep the loser in office.

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