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Thursday, June 05, 2003

Thoughts on Hillary and Condi-I was listening to a bit of Sean Hannity on the way over to Melbourne; he had Dick Morris and Susan Estrich talking about Hillary. Estrich made the comment that Hillary's relative lack of honesty would hurt her with women and make her chance of getting elected next to nil since a woman would have to get an overwhelming majority of women to vote for her to be elected president. Only if that woman is a Democrat. A standard-issue liberal Democratic woman would scare off a lot of swing voters, especially if she were seen to be soft on crime and foreign policy and too much in favor of a nanny state. A Republican woman wouldn't have that much of a problem, especially someone like Condi Rice, whose forte is geopolitics and who has the most political cojones for a woman this side of Dame Thatcher. Condi could win while merely holding her own with the women's vote. The woman's vote is mostly on economics, where they tend to be more economically liberal; they're more likely to be a single parent and need the help of government. Women also tend to be a bit less hawkish on geopolitics, but that seems to be diminishing after 9/11. There isn't a lot of the gender gap that's due to abortion; women tend to be more pro-life than men. Condi might get a few points of "You go, girl!" female cameraderie, but she'll still have a negative gender gap. If it's a somewhat close race, she could win the male vote 60-40 and lose the female vote 49-51 and still win 55-45.

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