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Wednesday, June 25, 2003

Adlai Gore-Pinch me, I just read a good Richard Cohen article favorably comparing Dubya with Ike and unfavorably compairing Gore with Adlai Stevenson. A few minor digs on hanging chads, and a few major digs on Ike's less-than-liberal administration, but refreshingly bile-free. How is Mr. Austin going to scourge this one? The Note pointed out that Barney the pink dinosaur Frank has advised Gore not to run. It might be a bias towards homeboy John Kerry or a truly frank discussion of Gore's chances; I think the latter. Frank's about as far away from me as you can get and not have joined the Greens, but he's usually living up to his name with fairly honest and blunt commentary. How many people voted for Bush in 2000 and think they made a mistake? Not many. Weigh that with the number of people that voted for Gore and are now glad that their guy didn't win and you have a 55-45 win in a Bush-Gore rematch. Bush is better on foreign policy that people expected and about as conservative as they expected. Gore doesn't have a compelling case to make to Bush voters that they goofed voting for him in 2000. He also will have to regain the swing voters who voted against a bumbing cowboy only to find a smart and capable leader there. I think the next month or so will be key for Gore's chances in 2004. If we go to war in Iraq and win cleanly, Gore is more than toast, he's charcoal, corpus crispy. Cheap shot warning-the one Republican group Gore does like are the Republican Guards; for a stiff and ugly war is his best chance. If things go ugly there, he'll have the "I told you so" ground to run on. However, if the war is won cleanly, he's not going to have a leg to stand on and will have to let someone else challage Bush.

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