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Friday, March 28, 2003

Afternoon Musings-We were watching NBC's newscast at a friend's house last night when a piece on warblogs showed up. They had brief (maybe a second each) screenviews of Andrew Sullivan and Instapundit and covered in depth the Salam Pax blog and the Agonist (who provided the NBC link). I was able to point to Instapundit and say that that guy links to me. "One degree of seperation" was Mac's comeback. For what it's worth, Gary Hart has a blog. Two decades ago, he was an ahead-of-the-curve "Atari Democrat" and he might be ahead of the curve again. It will be interesting to see what he does with it. It's a down-to-earth, unslick but not shabby MT platform with links to largely honorable (well, he does link to Atrios, but the others are OK) liberal sites. This could be well worth watching-the Syrians appear to be helping get equipment to the Iraqis and Rummy's not happy. Back in Janaury, I had proposed an Operation Baathwater of regime change in Syria and Iraq in one swoo felp.
Now, lets wake up from this pleasant geopolitical fantasy. The chances of trumping up enough charges to make an US invasion of Syria viable are slim. If Syria is stoopid enough to come to Iraq's aid during Gulf War II, then the twofer could be feasible. If Syria chose the time of Gulf War II to try to move on the northern border, trying to retake the Golan Heights or moving in from Lebanon, then the US might choose to aid Israel on a road trip to Damascus. However, the chances of this happening are fairly slim. Bashir Assad isn't a dummy; an invasion of Israel would be folly unless he's throwing a Hail Mary (good Islamic alternative, please) to take out the Jews once and for all. Helping out the Iraqis would be equally foolish; allowing Saddam to stash some Scuds in Syria would lead to a nasty US response. Barring either of those actions, Dr. Bashir is safe for now.
Assad might just be that stoopid, but I don't think he is.

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