Friday, September 06, 2002

Who's Got Crystal Balls?-Larry Sabato, "the Official PoliSci Prof for the Washington media," has a 2002 Crystal Ball Predictions site up-thanks to Quasipundit for the heads-up. Good news for the GOP- they keep the House. He's got the Republicans with 217 seats leaning or better, with 16 toss-ups. This means that the Democrats will have to run the toss-up table (and knock off a few leaners, since a couple of conservative Dems might defect if they're the swing vote) in order to get to Speaker Gephardt. Not-so-good-news. The Senate is a jump ball in the prof's eyes. He has six toss-up seats: four Democratic (Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey(!) and South Dakota) and two Republican (Arkansas and New Hampshire); everything else leans towards the status quo. However, the polling seems to give the Republicans the edge in all but Arkansas, where Hutchenson's divorce may cool his support on the right. He has an interesting take on the Louisiana race, which will likely end in a December runoff.
And if the Senate's party control depends on a December run-off in Louisiana, expect the political equivalent of nuclear war, with records set for campaign spending and street money (vote-buying). Plus, everyone covering politics gets a tax-deductible trip to New Orleans. We can hardly wait.
Of the leaning list, there are more Democratic senators that could be surprised, such as Harkin in Iowa, Landrieu in Louisiana and Cleland in Georgia, than there are Republicans in similar trouble, such as Cornyn in Texas. I'm calling for an over/under at +3 (make that +2.5 Vegas style) for the Republicans at this point, picking up four Democratic seats (MN, MO, SD and either NJ or one of the leaners) and losing Arkansas. If Bob Smith wins his primary, I'm adjusting down to a +2.

If I were gold für wow a boy again,world of warcraft gold I would practice perseverance wow gold cheap more often,maple meso and never give up a thing because it was or inconvenient. If we want light,Maple Story Account we must conquer darkness. Perseverance can sometimes equal genius in its results.wow gold kaufen “There are only two creatures,”cheap maplestory mesos syas a proverb, “who can surmount the pyramids—the eagle and the snail.” If I were a boy again,wow geld I would school myself into a habit of attention;maple mesos I would let nothing come between me and the subject in hand.maple story power leveling I would remember that a good skater never tries to skate in two directions at once.billig wow gold The habit of attention becomes part of our life, if we begain early enough. I often hear grown up people say maple story items“ I could not fix my attention on the sermon or book, although I wished to do so” , wow powerlevelingand the reason is, the habit was not formed in youth. If I were to live my life over again,wow leveling I would pay more attention to the cultivation of the memory. I would strengthen that faculty by every possible means,wow power leveling and on every possible occasion.maplestory powerleveling It takes a little hard work at first
Post a Comment

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?