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Thursday, September 26, 2002

The Prototype American Candidates-Part II-The CampaignHere was my part one, where I came up with three prototype finalists for the proposed American Candidate series. To answer Jeffery's Collins' question on all three being under 50; I didn't make the ages with that in mind, but with a younger audience, I think that a younger candidate would tend to fare better in viewer's eyes. You won't see any straight conservatives or liberals in the finals, for people will be looking for an alternative to the two basic flavors. Here's my daydreams about how each of the campaigns will run, assuming that the candidates get plenty of exposure and they get, say, $5,000,000 to run a simple national campaign funded by 900-number calls to vote for the candidates in the show. Butch Davidson- If he decideds to run, it will be a wild-card. He could get some disgruntled moderate Republicans and some patriotic Democrats. If the Democratic nominee is seen to be too liberal and too dovish, he could start to reach the 30% that would make him a viable candidate. However, it's more likely that he can't make a case to too many swing voters and stick in single digits. Morgan WilliamsThis would be the true rainbow coalition. A pro-life black DLC type would give both parties fits, especially if Bush has some sort of falling out with religious conservatives. If you got James Dopson ticked enought at Dubya to endorse Williams, he could draw half the black vote, a plurality of the centrist vote and a plurality of the evangelical vote. His race chips away on the left, his economics chips away in the center and his faith comes at it on the left. In that scenerio, 40% is achievable, but only if Dubya is on the outs with the evangelicals two years from now. Without that, it's 5% at best, hurting the Democrat more. Andi Petroccelli If she runs, it will hurt the Democrats more. She might carry a few states such as Oregon, Washington, Vermont and Maine running as Jessica Ventura. Whether she draws more from the centrist Republicans or the green Democrats is an open question. She doesn't quite have the room to get a plurality nationwide unless she starts to eclipse the Democrats enough were it is a Petroccelli-Bush race. She might also have a Ross Perot momement where she sticks her foot in her mouth so bad that she becomes toxic.

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