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Tuesday, September 24, 2002

Gore and War-I didn't see the speech last night, but have seen the take on it. The take from Susanna Cornett , who's not prone to exaggeration, and others seem to think it was Gore at his least effective; the stiff, pedantic, condescending dweeb. Add to that he has pretty-much painted himself into the anti-war corner. This creates an interesting possibility if the war goes safely; having a less-dovish challenger paint Gore as too out of step with the swing voter to be elected. John Edwards, maybe? John Kerry? Both guys are liberal enough to get nominated yet could paint Gore as too "out-of-touch." The swing Democratic primary voter will be looking at two things. The first will be whether the candidate agrees with them on the issues. The second is whether he can actually beat Bush in November, 2004. If we have a rematch today, Bush wins by about 8-10%. Bush has added to his luster in office, while Gore seems to have gone backward from 2000. How many 2000 Gore voters would thing Bush had done a good job and deserves a second term? Much more than those who voted for Bush in 2000 and wish they hadn't. If Gore sticks to this arch-multilateralist stance, he could be isolated within his own party if he is seen to have POed the patriotic swing voter.

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