Friday, July 05, 2002

Dingell's Not Toast- Contrary to this article that A Dog's Life pointed to, I don't think that Lynn Rivers will get past John Dingell for the 15th District nomination. Ss the Commerce Committee chair in the bad-old-days of Democratic house rule, Dingell would terrorize people he disagreed with, gaining quite a few enemies on the right. However, he does play well to the blue-collar voter in that he is a Kyoto-skeptic and is largely anti-gun-control. True, that won't play as well in Ann Arbor as it does in Flat Rock or Monroe, but River's college-town liberalism won't sell that well downriver. The EPIC-MRI poll listed here points out that Democrats wind up voting for Rivers when pro-Rivers information is provided may give her backers some hope, but the polls still seem to favor Dingell. I think that Dingell's pro-gun record might be a bigger positive factor than people think. There are a lot of hunters in Michigan and many of them are otherwise liberal union folks. If you've ever seen the pickup trucks heading north on I-75 on November 14 (the day before deer-hunting season starts), you'd understand that that is a factor for a lot of people in the blue-collar suburbs of Metro Detroit. I hope my words are sweet and tender, 'cause I may have to eat them if Rivers pulls an upset next month, but I'm not counting on it.

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