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Wednesday, May 15, 2002

Ben’s Boffo Buffet-“Great Taste, Less Filling”-Ben Domenech had quite a few good items on this intellectual buffet yesterday. Remember, Mark, All-you-can-eat is an invitation, not a challenge. (1) Ben asks how many Blue States there will be in a Hillary-Condi (yes, time to add Condi to the spell-checker) 2008 race. My quick-‘n-dirty guess: Connecticut, DC, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island. 86 electoral votes for Hillary, 452 for Condi. No recount needed. (2) Rendell vs-Casey- The Pennsylvania gubernatorial primary has state auditor-general Bob Casey Jr., son of the late pro-life governor, going up against former Philly mayor (and Patrick Ruffini prof) Ed Rendell on the Democratic side. Casey is playing to blue-collar conservatives away from Philly. How many Reagan Democrats are still Democrats? Not as many as there used to be. Getting out your base will be key here, and if a good NRA campaign can put a bug in the bonnet of the blue-collar hunting crowd, it might carry the day for Casey. However, Casey’s ten points back in the polls, so he’s drawing to an inside straight to make that up by next Tuesday’s primary. (3) Jim Jeffords as a secret weapon? Only in fundraising, as he will draw out the NPR crowd to the rubber-chicken events to scratch their goo-goo itches. At the polls, this will help conservatives (by reminding them of the take-over) about as much as it will help liberals.

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