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Wednesday, February 06, 2002

Papa Blog's Victory Conditions-Instapundit has set up a set of victory conditions for the War on Terror

1. Iranian mullahs, Saudi royals, Saddam Hussein out of power, replaced by nonhostile, preferably democratic regimes. Islamic fundamentalist leaders around the world neutralized or dead. 2. Friendly, more-or-less democratic regimes in place in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Central Asian republics. ("More or less" means better than at present, though not necessarily up to standards of U.S., India, etc.) 3. Leaders of remaining hostile nations, if any, thoroughly cowed. New conventional wisdom is "don't piss off the Americans."

Let's break it down. Condition set 1- I'll settle for a Kuwait-level of benigness in Riyadh (if we can get that, I'm not invading), but Iran and Iraq need an overhaul. The Iranians seem to be months rather than years away from doing it themselves; we may need to do Iraq ourselves with some local help a la Afghanistan. Condition sets 2 and 3- Bingo! Some of the thugs in the Stans may need some changing. We don't want to get back into the "he's an SOB but he's our SOB" Cold War motif; we might get the next Osama kicking out the anti-Islamist goons if we don't get good governments in the region. Central Asia will require some deft diplomacy (and probably a few Special Forces sorties) to get the job done.

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