Friday, February 01, 2002

Next Right has this riff on the Democratic chances in 2004.

I also have a theory that members of Congress cannot get elected President, only Governors. Congress votes on too many things, and people vote for different reasons on a bill. A person can support the main idea of a bill, but be against the amendments attached to it. These things allow for a Congressional voting record to easily be used by an opponent. A Governor also has to show a better ability to create consensus, than a Senator does. A senator basically just has to "not mess up too badly", to get reelected. Who remembers what they voted for 5 years ago?

Sean McCray then notes that the Dems "have no governors" with Gray Davis being the best of a poor lot, with the Senate bunch (Clinton, Edwards, Daschle) not much more promising. Historically, you can fit presidential histories in three categories-Governors, Senators and War Heroes. You have to go back to Garfield to find a House member go straight to the presidency. However, we've had a run of governors or ex-governors for the last 25 years (Bush pere broke the trend) as Carter, Reagan, Clinton and Dubya were all governors. Before that, we had quite a few senators (Truman, Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon) go to the White House. Senators get to vote on (and get attack ads mined from) a broader range of issues, while governors get to be chief executive of a smaller government. Senators don't get to show the leadership skills, while governors don't have a foreign policy component (the standard governor crack is that "their foreign policy experience comes from eating at the International House of Pancakes") to their job. Baseball pun- the Senators left town for Texas in the early 70s (ironically part-owned by Dubya for a while) and a senator hasn't been elected since then. Maybe the return of the Senators to Washington (the Expos are a candidate to be moved to DC if not eliminated outright) could signal a return of Senators to the White House.

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