Thursday, January 17, 2002
Here's a quick and dirty attempt-with about four hours of work bopping over a few political web sites and candidate pages, to predict the US senate races for 2002. The nominees are the most likely given the basic research over the evening.The ending rating is the chance of it going Republican-sorry for the poor formating-I'll need to figure out how to get an Excel sheet into HTML and get it to look right. Of course, they'll be things I probablly missed and will most likely have my gluteus maximus fact-checked. Bring it on, ladies and germs. Alabama---Sen Jeff Sessions VS Susan Parker---( .9) Alaska---Sen Ted Stevens VS Tony Knowles---( .9) Arkansas---Sen Tim Hutchenson VS Mark Pryor---( .7) Colorado---Sen Wayne Allard VS Tom Strickland---( .8) Deleware---Ray Clatworthy? VS Sen Joe Biden---( .1) Georgia---Saxby Chambliss VS Sen Max Cleland---( .5) Idaho---Sen Larry Craig VS Alan Blinken---( 1) Illinois---Jim Oberwies VS Sen Dick Durbin---( .25) Iowa---Greg Ganski VS Sen Tom Harkin---( .6) Kansas---Sen Pat Roberts VS ???---( 1) Kentucky---Sen Mitch McConnell VS Lois Combs Weinberg---( .9) Louisiana---John Cooksey VS Sen Mary Landrieu---( .5) Maine---Sen Susan Collins VS Chellie Pingree---( .8) Massachusettes---??? VS Sen John Kerry---( 0) Michigan---Andrew Raczkowski VS Sen Carl Levin---( .35) Minnesota---Norm Coleman VS Sen Paul Wellstone---( .55) Mississippi---Sen Thad Cochran VS ???---( .95) Montana---Mike Taylor VS Sen Max Baucus---( .5) Misouri---Jim Talent VS Sen Jean Carnahan---( .4) Nebraska---Sen Chuch Hagel VS ???---( 1) New Hampshire---Sen Bob Smith VS Jean Shaheen---( .4) New Jersey---Jim Trefflinger? VS Sen Bob Torricelli---( .25) New Mexico---Sen Pete Domenici VS Gloria Tristani---( .85) North Carolina---Elizabeth Dole VS Erskine Bowles?---( .9) Oklahoma---Sen James Inhofe VS David Walters---( .8) Oregon---Sen Gordon Smith VS Bill Bradburry---( .5) Rhode Island---Lincold Almond VS Sen Jack Reed---( .25) South Carolina---Lindsey Graham VS Alex Sanders---( 1) South Dakoda---John Thune VS Sen Tim Johnson---( .5) Tennesee---Sen Fred Thompson VS Harold Ford---( 1) Texas---John Cornyn VS ???---( .85) Virginia---Sen John Warner VS ???---( .9) West Virginia---Jay Wolfe VS Sen John Rockefeller---( .15) Wyoming---Sen Michael Enzi VS ???---( 1) Of the seats above, the Republicans have 20-I'm projecting 22.05, getting them to 51 seats. Here's a quick-n-dirty on the more-contested ones. I'm linking to the challengers, and letting you get info on the senators. Arkansas- Attorney General Mark Pryor, son of former senator David, will give Sen Tim Hutchinson a run for his money. Georgia- Cleland didn't win by much last time, and could be taken out with a solid campaign by Congressman Chambliss. This one may go to a run-off. Illinois-Jim Oberwies will be an underdog, but the dairy owner and financial journalist might have enough charisma to oust Dick Durban, assuming he gets the nomination. Iowa- I'm predicting an upset here, for moderate Congressman Greg Ganski to beat Tom Harkin, but Ganski will have to bring his A game. Louisiana- Let's talk squeakers, shall we-Landrieu got in by the skin of her teeth last time, and a good campaign from Congressman Cooksey or Public Service Commissioner Jay Blossman could carry the day. Maine- Sen Susan Collins would seem to be a lock, but I have a feeling that former state senate leader Chellie Pingree will make things interesting. She seems just spunky enough to catch fire with quirky Mainers. Michigan- State Rep. Andrew "Rocky" Raczkowski, a 32-year-old Army Reserve officer is the favorite to take on Apollo Levin. Uncle Carl's hard to beat when he puts on his avuncular Pentagon waste-trimmer persona, leaving the challanger with just calling him "too liberal" and sounding shrill-but Rocky's got a slugger's chance. 35% might be wishful thinking after a quarter-century of Levin as my senator, but I think this guy might do it. Minnesota-Moderate former St. Paul mayor Norm Coleman should be able to beat Paul Wellstone. Coleman fits the Dave Durenberger mold of moderate Republicans that Minnesota has sent to Washington when the DFL isn't on it's game, and Wellstone is vulnerable if Coleman can get some spark. Coleman's downside-dull. Montana-Sen Max Baucus is a Democrat in Republican territory. State Sen. Mike Taylor is the expected foe. Doesn't he look like TR 2.0? Works as a motivational speaker and rancher. Right out of central casting for a candidate for Big Sky territory. I'll call it a toss-up for now, until I hear more about Mr. Taylor in action. Missouri-Former congressman Jim Talent will try to make Sen. Jean Carnahan's stay in Washington brief. It was a squeaker last time, and she's be running as Senator Carnahan not Widow Carnahan, to her disadvantage. It should be a squeaker again, and I'll give her the edge for now. New Hampshire-Sen Bob Smith will have two battles to stay in Washington, beating Congressman John E. Sununu (the former governor and White House chief of staff's son) in the primary and then getting past governor Jean Shaheen in the general. If Sununu gets the nomination, he's stand a even shot of beating Gov. Shaheen, but I'd have to make Smith an underdog in the general. New Hampshire isn't the old "Live Free or Die" state; its got too many Taxachusettes refugees tilting the state centrist. New Jersey- Torchdown?- Essex County Exec Jim Trefflinger, a ally of gubernatorial nominee Bret Schundler, is the frontrunner to take on Sen. Bob Torricelli. Torricelli's supply-side liberalism will be hard to beat, but if Trefflinger can make the corruption stuff stick, he'll have a shot. Oregon-Got a bad feeling about this one- Secretary of State Bill Bradburry is the kind of eco-freindly liberal Oregon has a taste for, while Sen. Smith might be a bit too conservative for a liberal-leaning state. My hope is that Bradburry runs too liberal and decency and incumbency will prevail. Rhode Island-I may be a nut , but Gov. Lincoln Almond might just be in the Chaffee mode of electably moderate Republicans. Still I'm picking Sen. Jack Reed to hang on here. South Dakota- The state's lone congressman, John Thune will have a death-cager with Sen Tim Johnson in a proxy-referendum on Daschle. Blood and money on the floor. Texas- State attorney general John Cornyn looks to be the favorite for the Republican nomination. A five-way Democratic nomination could get funky. Hope this is an early heads-up on some of these races-it was a fun evening doing some serious Googling.
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